The
Sustainability
Trends Report

2024

Welcome
Welcome

But be ye doers of the word, and not hearers only, deceiving your own selves.

James 1:22

Dear Reader,

Climate promises are starting to resemble New Year’s resolutions: easy to make, hard to keep.

The worldwide push to stem the climate crisis has drawn in many of the big institutions that most need to act: not just governments but corporations of all kinds, including big banks and other institutional money managers, commodity producers, consumer products companies and many more. Even the companies digging or pumping fossil fuels out of the ground are feeling the pressure to make commitments.

We are disappointed to report that the past few years have seen a wave of backsliding on those climate commitments, however. Some of this regression has occurred in direct response to political pressure in the United States, where right-wing politicians are scoring points by attacking woke capital,’ sometimes using the financial firepower of state governments to get what they want. But the bigger problem has been a lack of courage, fortitude and determination at a global scale as some of the leaders who made big promises at the climate summit in Glasgow in 2021 realise how difficult those promises will be to keep. Like New Year’s resolutions so enthusiastically made in January but forgotten by April, these commitments have lately been falling by the wayside. 

We are especially disappointed by some of our colleagues in the financial services industry who took bold stances only a few years ago but are now wriggling out of their promises. Less surprising, alas, is that some of the half-hearted pledges made by oil companies have lately been abandoned. Even stalwart companies determined to act on climate are finding that cutting their emissions is hard going.

Now the biggest climate promise ever made is finally on the table: an agreement, negotiated in Dubai late last year, that committed the entire world to transitioning away’ from fossil fuels. 

Can we do it? 

We must do it, and the real question: how fast we can go? The faster the nations of the world get moving, the sooner we can achieve net-zero emissions — the point where any remaining greenhouse gas emissions can be balanced out by removals from the atmosphere. Unfortunately, the biggest problem we confront has not gone away: the sheer power of human and economic inertia.

We offer readers the eighth edition of our Sustainability Trends Report, taking stock of the climate and environmental crises at a global scale. Last year’s report was buoyed by the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, primarily a climate law, in the United States and by European success at countering the energy crisis manufactured by Vladimir Putin. This year, we feel compelled to write in detail about the difficulties still facing the world as it tries to bring emissions down.

We have not lost heart. But every single one of us must recognise that we will be working on this problem for the rest of our lives, and at no point is it likely to be easy.

Al Gore, Chairman
Al Gore, Chairman
David Blood, Senior Partner
David Blood, Senior Partner
01 Year in Focus
Transitioning away’ from fossil fuels has now become a formal international goal under the United Nations treaty on climate change. No detailed plans to achieve that goal have been agreed, but countries did pledge to triple the amount of renewable power on the grid by 2030 — a pledge that can be tracked as a measure of how serious their transition plans are.
02 Power
Renewable electricity is now growing rapidly, with solar energy being the breakout star, as the installation of new panels grew 74 percent in a single year. But power demand is starting to grow rapidly too: new data centres are gulping down electricity, and more electric cars and heat pumps are drawing power from the grid. It remains unclear when we will turn the corner and see electricity emissions finally begin to fall.
03 Transportation
The transition to electric cars is hitting speed bumps in some markets, with car-makers like Ford scaling back their transition plans and Volkswagen considering closing German factories for the first time. Meanwhile other countries are moving forward, especially China, where electric cars are now the economical choice and are taking half the new-car market. We have yet to see much progress in cutting emissions from planes, ships or lorries.
04 Buildings
The buildings sector is not on track for the cuts needed to meet global emissions goals. The slow progress from tougher building codes in some countries is being swamped by breakneck urbanisation and weak or non-existent building codes in many other countries. One bright spot is that heat pumps, which can run on clean power, are starting to displace gas furnaces and boilers.
05 Industry
Progress is still slow in the industrial sector, but we are beginning to see movement. Plans were announced for new low-emissions steel plants using clean hydrogen, tripling the number of such factories on the drawing board. Hydrogen is critical to the emissions-cutting plans of some other industries, and factories are finally scaling up to make the equipment required to convert clean power into hydrogen.
06 People, Land & Food
The climate crisis seems to be contributing to high food prices, which have driven up the number of hungry people in the world by an estimated 152 million in this decade. Global hunger worsened during the pandemic in 2020, and the problem has not abated. Far more work is needed to secure the food supply in an overheating climate and to encourage the spread of better farming practices. The destruction of tropical forests has abated somewhat under a new government in Brazil, but deforestation remains an urgent global problem.
07 Financing the Transition
We have finally reached the point where $2 is being spent on clean energy for every $1 spent expanding fossil fuels, a ratio that was closer to 1‑to‑1 only five years ago. But clean investment needs to climb rapidly, to $4 trillion or $5 trillion a year by 2030, to meet the world’s climate goals. Big banks are still shovelling hundreds of billions into the development of new fossil fuels, despite their pledges to align their lending with the climate transition.
08 Looking Ahead
A fundamental tension has developed in the energy transition: governments want to use it as a core element of their industrial policy, to create new jobs in domestic factories, even as they try to move rapidly to clean energy. The two goals are in conflict, given China’s nearly insurmountable head start in solar panels, electric cars, batteries and other green technologies. How this tension gets resolved will determine how fast the energy transition can proceed.

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