But be ye doers of the word, and not hearers only, deceiving your own selves.
James 1:22
01 Year in Focus
‘Transitioning away’ from fossil fuels has now become a formal international goal under the United Nations treaty on climate change. No detailed plans to achieve that goal have been agreed, but countries did pledge to triple the amount of renewable power on the grid by 2030 — a pledge that can be tracked as a measure of how serious their transition plans are.
02 Power
Renewable electricity is now growing rapidly, with solar energy being the breakout star, as the installation of new panels grew 74 percent in a single year. But power demand is starting to grow rapidly too: new data centres are gulping down electricity, and more electric cars and heat pumps are drawing power from the grid. It remains unclear when we will turn the corner and see electricity emissions finally begin to fall.
03 Transportation
The transition to electric cars is hitting speed bumps in some markets, with car-makers like Ford scaling back their transition plans and Volkswagen considering closing German factories for the first time. Meanwhile other countries are moving forward, especially China, where electric cars are now the economical choice and are taking half the new-car market. We have yet to see much progress in cutting emissions from planes, ships or lorries.
04 Buildings
The buildings sector is not on track for the cuts needed to meet global emissions goals. The slow progress from tougher building codes in some countries is being swamped by breakneck urbanisation and weak or non-existent building codes in many other countries. One bright spot is that heat pumps, which can run on clean power, are starting to displace gas furnaces and boilers.
05 Industry
Progress is still slow in the industrial sector, but we are beginning to see movement. Plans were announced for new low-emissions steel plants using clean hydrogen, tripling the number of such factories on the drawing board. Hydrogen is critical to the emissions-cutting plans of some other industries, and factories are finally scaling up to make the equipment required to convert clean power into hydrogen.
06 People, Land & Food
The climate crisis seems to be contributing to high food prices, which have driven up the number of hungry people in the world by an estimated 152 million in this decade. Global hunger worsened during the pandemic in 2020, and the problem has not abated. Far more work is needed to secure the food supply in an overheating climate and to encourage the spread of better farming practices. The destruction of tropical forests has abated somewhat under a new government in Brazil, but deforestation remains an urgent global problem.
07 Financing the Transition
We have finally reached the point where $2 is being spent on clean energy for every $1 spent expanding fossil fuels, a ratio that was closer to 1‑to‑1 only five years ago. But clean investment needs to climb rapidly, to $4 trillion or $5 trillion a year by 2030, to meet the world’s climate goals. Big banks are still shovelling hundreds of billions into the development of new fossil fuels, despite their pledges to align their lending with the climate transition.
08 Looking Ahead
A fundamental tension has developed in the energy transition: governments want to use it as a core element of their industrial policy, to create new jobs in domestic factories, even as they try to move rapidly to clean energy. The two goals are in conflict, given China’s nearly insurmountable head start in solar panels, electric cars, batteries and other green technologies. How this tension gets resolved will determine how fast the energy transition can proceed.